The milquetoast Maple Leafs took a bad time in Montreal in the second period

  • Honestly, I’m not sure how much point there is in trying to break down the Leafs and Habs game from a numbers standpoint. When the Leafs felt like trying they easily outplayed Montreal. When they felt they had done enough, it was the worst hockey imaginable. I don’t know if there’s anything that will be said below that can’t be covered with the tortoise and the hare analogy, but I told my boss we’d have some sort of analysis post after every game, so we’re doing this.

We’ll spend a lot more time with the ever-popular Corsi chart than we normally would because it illustrates the game so well. The first period showed a Leafs team that absolutely had it. The Leafs were coming in and playing against a team that gave up their top scorer for the year earlier in the day, in a week where they gave up their first overall draft pick for the year, and if not for Montreal’s pregame defeatist attitude, the Leafs Made sure they scored a title at the first break.

duration

TOI

Cf

ca

CF%

HDCF

HDCA

HDCF%

xGF

xGA

xGF%

GF

GA

GF%

1

16:25

22

6

78.57%

10

3

76.92%

1.6

0.36

81.65%

2

0

100%

2

15:56

14

21

40%

1

9

10%

0.23

1.7

11.86%

0

2

0%

3

14:20

25

8

75.76%

6

1

85.71%

1.54

0.24

86.44%

0

0

the final

46:41

61

35

63.54%

17

13

56.67%

3.37

2.3

59.43%

2

2

50%

One of two things happened there. The first is that Martin St. Louis simultaneously performed the Miracle Speech, the entirety of any given Sunday speech, and ran around the locker room firing people like he was Rudy or something. The Leafs were feeling pretty good about themselves after taking a 2-0 lead and decided to pull off their biggest turd of the season in the second period. Based on my eyes, it was the second one.

You can absolutely tell there was an effort in the third period, but what can you say? It doesn’t matter that much if you don’t score, and the Leafs didn’t.

When it comes to the Leafs offense, I think we can connect the dots to why the goals weren’t scored when there were opportunities based on players getting opportunities. The Leafs were primarily led by Ngvall, Kampf and Bunting when it came to 5v5 opportunities. Nylander was there, but when you have Matthews and Tavares in the same ixG as Zach Aston-Reese, you can definitely point some fingers.

the player

shot

ixG

ICF

iHDCF

Pierre Engval

3

0.59

7

3

David Kampf

2

0.52

3

2

Michael Bunting

3

0.52

3

2

William Nylander

5

0.37

10

3

Calle Jarnkrok

1

0.25

2

1

Mitchell Marner

4

0.24

4

2

Alexander Kerfoot

0

0.23

2

1

Mark Giordano

2

0.14

5

0

Auston Matthews

1

0.13

5

1

Jack Aston-Rees

0

0.13

3

1

John Tavares

2

0.1

3

1

Morgan Riley

2

0.07

6

0

Bobby McMann

1

0.06

2

0

Timothy Liljegren

2

0.02

2

0

Conor Timmins

1

0.01

2

0

Justin Hall

0

0

1

0

Rasmus Sandin

0

0

1

0

Wayne Simmonds

0

0

0

0

It’s not often that we talk about Auston Matthews pulling his line, so let’s just admit that this is a rarity and this was one of those games.

In the spirit of not dragging it out too long, we’ll close the questionable overtime goal aside, it was a passing grade night for Ilya Samsonov and should be bought since he didn’t make the team in the second half. Some credibility when it comes to letting in a stinker or two.

Samsonov finished the night with a .903 save percentage which isn’t great for him, but no one would call it a bad night. He had a .929 HDSV%, which speaks to a further departure from the problems he had under Jack Campbell and Freddie Andersen. And with an expected goals against ratio of 3.71, Samsonov wound up better than what was expected of him in Montreal.

The Leafs have 9 wins and 8 losses against bottom 10 teams in the league this season, so it’s a bit odd to pick at any point.

As for Toronto’s next game, they’ll be at it again on Monday against the New York Islanders who recently enjoyed their first night of the “Fire Lou” song. It should be fun.

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